By
Austin Coker
Reading time: 12 min
Retail media is no longer a side budget. US advertisers are forecast to spend $69.33 billion on retail media in 2026, up from $58.79 billion in 2025 — a $10.53 billion increase, according to eMarketer’s H2 2025 retail media forecast (Max Willens, published November 5, 2025). Almost all of that incremental spend is going to two networks.
US retail media ad spend is projected at $69.33B in 2026 (+19.6% vs 2025’s $58.79B). Of the $10.53B in new dollars, eMarketer estimates $9.42B (over 89%) goes to Amazon Ads and Walmart Connect. Search’s share keeps growing on- and off-site; display growth continues to migrate off-site, with Amazon’s DSP and Walmart partnerships pulling most of that off-site growth.
Retail media usually means ads sold by retailers or marketplaces using first-party shopper data and (often) on-site or off-site inventory: sponsored products, display, video, and increasingly programmatic via a retailer’s DSP. Commerce media is a broader label some industry groups use for the same shift of brand dollars toward closed-loop retail environments (see IAB’s commerce media commentary).
When you compare “retail media statistics,” confirm whether a source means US only, on-site only, or includes off-site / DSP spend. The eMarketer figures below are US retail media ad spending as defined in that H2 2025 report.
Source: Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast and Trends H2 2025 (eMarketer / Max Willens).
The IAB 2026 Outlook Study (January 2026) separately discusses commerce media growth expectations for 2026.
eMarketer’s H2 2025 report’s central finding is concentration, not just growth:
For advertisers, that means “retail media” in practice often means Amazon + Walmart first, then a deliberate plan for everyone else (Target Roundel, Kroger, Walgreens, specialty and regional networks, and marketplace media outside the top two).
Use this comparison as a planning frame. Do not treat unnamed dollar shares as facts unless you have a primary source for that network and year.
eMarketer also notes that search’s share of retail media keeps growing (on-site and off-site), while display growth and spending continue to migrate off-site, with Amazon’s DSP and Walmart partnerships pulling most of that off-site growth.
Retail media statistics explain where paid retail dollars are going. They do not replace:
If you sell on Amazon and DTC, treat retail media, Amazon organic, and site SEO as one system: RMNs capture in-retail demand; SEO and GEO capture demand before the shopper picks a retailer.
Retail media statistics tell you where paid retail budgets are concentrating. They do not replace organic ranking on Amazon, Google, or AI assistants.
At 95 Projects, we help ecommerce brands connect retail media planning with Amazon SEO, Shopify SEO, PPC, and AI search so in-retail paid dollars and owned demand work as one system. If you want a senior read on how Amazon, Walmart, and your own site should share the plan, get in touch.
Austin Coker is the CEO and founder of 95 Projects. He has worked in SEO since 2020, when he built and sold an ecommerce brand that grew mainly through search. He founded 95 Projects in 2022 to help SaaS, ecommerce, and B2B service companies show up wherever their buyers search, from Google to ChatGPT and AI Overviews.
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eMarketer’s H2 2025 forecast projects $69.33 billion in US retail media ad spend for 2026, up from $58.79 billion in 2025.
Per the same eMarketer report, Amazon Ads and Walmart Connect are projected to take $9.42 billion of the $10.53 billion in incremental 2026 spend — over 89% of new dollars.
Growth is still strong in absolute dollars (+$10.53B YoY in the eMarketer forecast) even if percentage growth is past peak. The story for 2026 is concentration at the top two networks as much as category growth.
Retail media usually refers to ads sold by retailers/marketplaces with shopper data. Commerce media is a broader industry label (used by groups such as IAB) for the same shift of brand spend toward commerce environments. Always check how each report defines the term before comparing numbers.
No. Start with the retailers that already drive your sales and where closed-loop measurement is clear. Use category and geography to decide whether smaller RMNs deserve budget after Amazon and Walmart (when those are relevant to you).
