Prediction Market Advertising: What Kalshi-Style Apps Can Run on Google and Meta
Last updated: November 6, 2026 Prediction market advertising on Google is allowed in the US, but only for a narrow group of advertisers, and Kalshi ads and their competitors’ ads have to clear certification first. Since January 21, 2026, Google Ads policy has permitted US prediction market ads only from a CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose main business is listing event contracts, or from an NFA-authorized broker that offers access to one. Five states are excluded. Meta is less clear. Its ad rules don’t mention prediction markets by name, so the practical approach is to plan for the same prior authorization Meta requires for online gambling. This guide covers each platform’s rules, the state carve-outs, how Kalshi and Polymarket are advertising today, and the court and CFTC actions that could change things. It’s a summary of public sources, not legal advice. Prediction Market Advertising Rules at a Glance Channel Allowed? What you need Geo limits Status Primary source Google Ads (US) Yes, for eligible advertisers CFTC-authorized DCM or NFA-authorized broker, plus Google certification US, excluding CT, MI, NV, NY and OH; certification per location Confirmed Google Ads policy, Jan 5, 2026 Google Ads, election contracts Yes, with extra steps Prediction market certification plus political ads verification Same as above Confirmed Google Ads live policy, checked Oct 30, 2026 Google Ads, affiliates and review sites No Not eligible All Confirmed Google Ads live policy, checked Oct 30, 2026 Meta (Facebook and Instagram) Unclear Plan for authorization with proof of licensing in each targeted territory; no under-18 targeting Per territory Unsettled Meta Online Gambling and Games policy, checked Oct 30, 2026 Apple App Store No prediction-market clause Real-money gaming rules require licensing per location, geo-restriction and a free app Per location Unsettled App Store Review Guidelines 5.3.4, updated Oct 16, 2026 Can Kalshi Run Ads on Google? Yes, as long as the advertiser meets Google’s eligibility test and holds certification. Google’s January 5, 2026 policy update set the rule that took effect on January 21, 2026: in the United States, prediction market ads are allowed only for two kinds of advertisers. A Designated Contract Market authorized by the CFTC whose primary business is listing event contracts. A broker authorized by the National Futures Association (NFA) that offers access to such a DCM. Both need Google certification before ads can serve. The test looks at regulatory status, not at how the product is marketed. An app that calls itself a prediction market but isn’t a CFTC-authorized DCM, or an NFA-authorized broker connected to one, doesn’t qualify. That’s why “Kalshi-style” is a useful filter. The question isn’t whether your product looks like Kalshi. It’s whether you hold the same kind of federal authorization. Polymarket, for example, announced on November 25, 2025 that the CFTC approved an Amended Order of Designation for QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, allowing intermediated US access through futures commission merchants. That’s a company release, so check the CFTC record yourself before relying on it. What Google Ads Requires From Prediction Market Apps Google’s live prediction markets policy adds detail beyond the January announcement. As checked on November 6, 2026, it says: Where ads can run: “United States (excluding Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio).” Certification is per location. You apply for each place you want to target, not once for the whole account. What’s not allowed: binary options, games of chance and lotteries, informational or educational sites, blogs, trading signal services, affiliate sites and broker reviews. Election contracts: ads for them also need Google’s political ads verification. The disallowed list matters for anyone building around an exchange rather than running one. If your business is a comparison site, a review blog, a picks or signals service, or an affiliate funnel that sends traffic to Kalshi or Polymarket, Google’s policy doesn’t let you promote it as a prediction market advertiser. Only the exchange or its authorized broker can. Practical setup points Certification is the gate, so start there before you build campaigns. A few things follow from how the policy is written: Your account’s location targeting has to match the locations you’re certified for. Excluded states need to be removed from targeting, not just left out of your bid strategy. If you offer election contracts, plan for two approvals: prediction market certification and political ads verification. Google’s policy pages don’t spell out format-by-format differences in the sources we checked. Before you launch Performance Max, Shopping or YouTube campaigns, confirm eligibility for each format with Google during certification. Which States Restrict Prediction Market Advertising on Google? Five states are excluded from Google’s prediction market ads as of November 6, 2026: Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. Google added them over the course of the year, according to its policy change log: State Date excluded Source Ohio June 2, 2026 Google Ads policy update Michigan July 13, 2026 Google Ads policy update New York July 13, 2026 Google Ads policy update Connecticut October 7, 2026 Google Ads policy update Nevada Listed on the live policy; no separate notice found Google Ads live policy The list has grown roughly every few months, so treat it as a moving target. Several of these states are also in active litigation with prediction market operators, covered below. Changing as of November 2026: Google has added a state to the exclusion list four times this year. Check the live policy before every campaign launch or geo expansion. Can Prediction Markets Advertise on Meta? The answer is unsettled. Meta’s Online Gambling and Games policy requires advertisers to get authorization through Meta Business Suite, with proof of licensing in each territory they target, and bans targeting anyone under 18. The policy covers “all forms of online gambling.” No Meta policy page we found names prediction markets or event contracts. That leaves a classification question Meta hasn’t answered publicly: whether it treats event contracts as gambling or as a financial product. Until it does, the safe planning assumption is that Meta will want prior authorization,