By
Austin Coker
Reading time: 11 min
Last updated: November 6, 2026
Prediction market advertising on Google is allowed in the US, but only for a narrow group of advertisers, and Kalshi ads and their competitors’ ads have to clear certification first. Since January 21, 2026, Google Ads policy has permitted US prediction market ads only from a CFTC-authorized Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose main business is listing event contracts, or from an NFA-authorized broker that offers access to one. Five states are excluded.
Meta is less clear. Its ad rules don’t mention prediction markets by name, so the practical approach is to plan for the same prior authorization Meta requires for online gambling.
This guide covers each platform’s rules, the state carve-outs, how Kalshi and Polymarket are advertising today, and the court and CFTC actions that could change things. It’s a summary of public sources, not legal advice.
Yes, as long as the advertiser meets Google’s eligibility test and holds certification. Google’s January 5, 2026 policy update set the rule that took effect on January 21, 2026: in the United States, prediction market ads are allowed only for two kinds of advertisers.
Both need Google certification before ads can serve. The test looks at regulatory status, not at how the product is marketed. An app that calls itself a prediction market but isn’t a CFTC-authorized DCM, or an NFA-authorized broker connected to one, doesn’t qualify.
That’s why “Kalshi-style” is a useful filter. The question isn’t whether your product looks like Kalshi. It’s whether you hold the same kind of federal authorization. Polymarket, for example, announced on November 25, 2025 that the CFTC approved an Amended Order of Designation for QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, allowing intermediated US access through futures commission merchants. That’s a company release, so check the CFTC record yourself before relying on it.
Google’s live prediction markets policy adds detail beyond the January announcement. As checked on November 6, 2026, it says:
The disallowed list matters for anyone building around an exchange rather than running one. If your business is a comparison site, a review blog, a picks or signals service, or an affiliate funnel that sends traffic to Kalshi or Polymarket, Google’s policy doesn’t let you promote it as a prediction market advertiser. Only the exchange or its authorized broker can.
Certification is the gate, so start there before you build campaigns. A few things follow from how the policy is written:
Five states are excluded from Google’s prediction market ads as of November 6, 2026: Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. Google added them over the course of the year, according to its policy change log:
The list has grown roughly every few months, so treat it as a moving target. Several of these states are also in active litigation with prediction market operators, covered below.
Changing as of November 2026: Google has added a state to the exclusion list four times this year. Check the live policy before every campaign launch or geo expansion.
The answer is unsettled. Meta’s Online Gambling and Games policy requires advertisers to get authorization through Meta Business Suite, with proof of licensing in each territory they target, and bans targeting anyone under 18. The policy covers “all forms of online gambling.” No Meta policy page we found names prediction markets or event contracts.
That leaves a classification question Meta hasn’t answered publicly: whether it treats event contracts as gambling or as a financial product. Until it does, the safe planning assumption is that Meta will want prior authorization, and that ads may be rejected without it.
In practice that means:
Unsettled as of November 2026: Meta has published no prediction-market-specific ad policy. The classification of event contracts under its gambling rules is not stated.
Much of the visible spending is on TV, not search or social. iSpot data reported by The Measure on September 18, 2026 estimated that through August 31, 2026, Kalshi spent $41.3 million on national linear TV ads and Polymarket spent $7.4 million. Those are third-party estimates of TV spend only. They don’t include search, social or digital video.
Other channels are mixed, based on a secondary tracker from agency 3betmedia (updated October 23, 2026):
These come from an agency tracker, not from TikTok or the leagues directly, so verify with the platform or rights holder before you plan around them.
Paid campaigns often drive app installs, so store rules matter too. Apple’s App Store Review Guidelines (updated October 16, 2026), section 5.3.4, require real-money gaming apps to have licensing in each location, geo-restriction and a free app. There’s no clause that names prediction markets. Whether Apple reviews an event contract app under 5.3.4 is not stated in the guidelines. Google Play’s rules weren’t part of this review.
We plan certification, geo targeting and account structure for regulated advertisers before the first campaign goes live, so policy problems don’t stall your launch.
None of the CFTC’s 2026 actions set advertising rules, but they shape who counts as a regulated prediction market, which is what Google’s policy depends on.
The June and October items are proposals. Neither is final as of November 6, 2026.
Federal appeals courts have split on whether states can regulate sports event contracts, and the question is now in front of the Supreme Court.
States are also suing directly. The New York Attorney General sued Kalshi on July 31, 2026, calling it an “illegal, unlicensed gambling operation,” and sued Polymarket on September 24, 2026.
Unsettled as of November 2026: the circuit split stands, and the Supreme Court has not decided whether to take New Jersey v. KalshiEX. The CFTC’s June and October proposals are not final.
For advertisers, the link between these cases and ad policy is indirect but real. Google’s exclusion list now includes New York, Ohio and Nevada, all states where operators face court action, and the platforms watch these rulings. A change in the legal picture can show up in ad policy with little notice.
Restricted verticals reward planning more than speed. We run PPC for iGaming, PPC for fintech and PPC for crypto brands, starting with certification, location targeting and account structure, so campaigns fit the policy on day one. Paid search usually works best alongside organic, so we also handle iGaming SEO and GEO for iGaming, which gets your brand cited in AI answers where ads can’t run. You can see the organic side in our UK online casino SEO case study.
AI assistants are becoming another ad surface with their own rules. Our guides to which AI assistants have ads and ChatGPT ads cover what’s open so far, and our LegitScript certification guide shows how certification works in another restricted category.
Book a short call and we’ll go over which channels you’re eligible for today, what certification you need and where SEO and GEO can carry the load. See our PPC services to start.
Austin Coker is the CEO and founder of 95 Projects. He has worked in SEO since 2020, when he built and sold an ecommerce brand that grew mainly through search. He founded 95 Projects in 2022 to help SaaS, ecommerce, and B2B service companies show up wherever their buyers search, from Google to ChatGPT and AI Overviews.
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Yes, if it meets Google’s test. Since January 21, 2026, Google Ads policy allows US prediction market ads only from a CFTC-authorized DCM listing event contracts, or an NFA-authorized broker offering access to one, with Google certification. Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio are excluded.
No. Google’s live prediction markets policy lists affiliate sites, broker reviews, blogs, informational or educational sites and trading signal services as disallowed. Only eligible exchanges and authorized brokers can advertise prediction markets, and each must be certified for every location it targets.
Unsettled. Meta’s Online Gambling and Games policy requires authorization with proof of licensing in each targeted territory and bars under-18 targeting, but no Meta page we found names prediction markets. Plan for prior authorization before you submit ads.
Five states, as of November 6, 2026: Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio. Google excluded Ohio on June 2, 2026, Michigan and New York on July 13, and Connecticut on October 7, 2026. Nevada appears on the live policy without a separate notice.
Yes. Google’s live policy says election-related prediction market ads also need political ads verification, on top of prediction market certification. Plan for both approvals, and for state exclusions applying to election contract ads the same way they apply to other event contracts.
Only third-party estimates exist. iSpot data reported by The Measure on September 18, 2026 estimated Kalshi spent $41.3 million on national linear TV through August 31, 2026, against $7.4 million for Polymarket. That covers TV only, not search, social or digital video.
Unsettled. New Jersey’s petition, No. 26-299, was docketed September 8, 2026, with Kalshi’s response now due December 7, 2026 after an extension granted October 30. The Court hasn’t said whether it will hear the case. The Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi, while the Sixth and Ninth Circuits ruled against it.
